4
Mr Rafiki
5yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 106
Stratford · Jodie Standing's Point-To-Point Recruits Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 6f 125y
#7
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Uttoxeter | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-16 | Worcester | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Stratford | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Warwick | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Ffos Las | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-08 | Ludlow | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 28/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength71%
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 12/04/2026 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 20/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 30/06/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 16/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |