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Expert Analysis

4yo Gelding · 11-13 · OR 99

Stratford · Racing TV Handicap Chase · 2m 3f 98y

#3

Rank

Odds

1/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair Flat maiden in Ireland and looks an improved performer over hurdles for current yard, beaten a short head at Sedgefield before presumably finding the 10-day turnaround catching him out at Perth. Back out again quickly for chase debut up in trip (new headgear) but can surely find a race.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲1
Strength30%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.9
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA61 @ Fairyhouse 09/07/2025 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR 61 · 7f Gd 123 · below its mark09/07/2025 · OR 61 par9/0761OR 61C0 @ Punchestown 14/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 2m46y Goo 152C8 @ Galway 25/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 2m90y Yie 15425/10C8C8 @ Fairyhouse 04/11/2025 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR - · 2m Sft 154BHA57 @ Dundalk 14/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 57 · 1m2f150y Std 127 · beat its mark14/11/2025 · OR 57 par14/1157OR 57BHA53 @ Dundalk 10/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 53 · 1m4f Std 136 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 53 par5 @ Sedgefield 28/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 95 · 2m178y Goo 164 · below its mark28/08/2026 · OR 95 par28/085OR 955 @ Sedgefield 14/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 93 · 2m178y Goo 163 · beat its mark14/09/2026 · OR 93 par5 @ Perth 24/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 93 · 2m47y Goo 164 · below its mark24/09/2026 · OR 93 par24/095OR 93projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-24Perth53rd3rd0
2026-09-14Sedgefield52nd2nd0
2026-08-28Sedgefield53rd3rd0
2026-05-26BallinrobeBHA96−5
2026-04-10DundalkBHA539th9th−0
2025-11-14DundalkBHA575th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/074/1128/0824/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 433% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 78/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength95%

Delivery trend -4.3% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 3rd of 4. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/07/202511th40/10%33%+0.33
14/10/20255th125/10%43%+0.43
25/10/20258th22/10%13%+0.13
04/11/202512th50/10%15%+0.15
14/11/20255th25/10%56%+0.56
10/04/20269th16/116%27%+0.11
28/08/20263rd10/147%78%+0.30
14/09/20262nd11/271%89%+0.18
24/09/20263rd5/696%75%-0.21