4

Golly Gosh

5yo Gelding · 11-0 · OR 76

Stratford · Racing TV Handicap Chase · 2m 3f 98y

#4

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Little encouragement over hurdles for Billy Aprahamian (sold out of the yard £5,500 in May) and needs a big step forward now chasing for his new yard (dam was a fairly useful 17f/2¼m winner over fences).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength58%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 7.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Warwick 24/04/2025 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR - · 2m Gd 14924/0454 @ Huntingdon 07/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 2m4f145y Sft 158 · HIGHER CLASS7/1244 @ Southwell 02/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 1m7f182y Goo 161 · HIGHER CLASS2/0244 @ Hereford 11/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR - · 2m53y Hvy 157 · HIGHER CLASS11/0245 @ Warwick 20/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 78 · 2m Gd 152 · below its mark20/05/2026 · OR 78 par20/055OR 78projClass-projected finish: 4th of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-20Warwick57th7th0
2026-05-02Uttoxeter50
2026-03-11Huntingdon50
2026-02-11Hereford47th6th+1
2026-02-02Southwell46th5th+1
2025-12-07Huntingdon47th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/047/122/0211/0220/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 40% of fieldRange 2-4 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength36%

Delivery trend -7.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 4. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/04/202510th33/10%25%+0.25
07/12/20257th100/10%45%+0.45
02/02/20266th40/10%44%+0.44
11/02/20267th66/10%50%+0.50
20/05/20267th14/126%14%-0.12