1
Lelant
8yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 90
Stratford · Racing TV Handicap Chase · 2m 3f 98y
#2
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
17%
Place Prob
28%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | Ffos Las | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Hereford | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-12-08 | Fontwell | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2025-11-26 | Market Rasen | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-13 | Hereford | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-04-16 | Ffos Las | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 467% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 45/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength63%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 4.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07/2024 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 62% | +0.09 |
| 31/08/2024 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 22/10/2024 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 36% | -0.11 |
| 23/02/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 16/04/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 13/10/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 26/11/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 25/03/2026 | 8th | 5/4 | 93% | 13% | -0.81 |
| 05/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |