Pescatorius
7yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 86
Stratford · Racing TV Handicap Chase · 2m 3f 98y
#1
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
82%
Place Prob
63%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Stratford | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Warwick | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Stratford | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-09 | Stratford | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-01-23 | Warwick | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-12-31 | Warwick | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.6% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 4. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2025 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 83% | -0.11 |
| 08/10/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 13/11/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 31/12/2025 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 43% | +0.38 |
| 23/01/2026 | 5th | 80/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 09/03/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 19/04/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 25/08/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |