2
Coalminer's Kitten
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 2 · OR 83
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 48/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength71%
Delivery trend +4.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/01/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 18/02/2026 | 5th | 6/5 | 94% | 33% | -0.60 |
| 18/03/2026 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 43% | -0.48 |
| 03/04/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 17/04/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 04/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 21/05/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 08/09/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 16/09/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |