4
Coastertothemoon
4yo Colt · 8-7 · Draw 4 · OR 87
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-04-03 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 59/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength71%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 04/03/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 17% | -0.71 |
| 16/03/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 03/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 22/04/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 05/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 26/05/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/13 | 97% | 75% | -0.22 |
| 23/09/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |