3
Majestic Frontier
7yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 3 · OR 74
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 34/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength48%
Delivery trend +2.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 21/10/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.15 |
| 12/11/2025 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 22% | -0.59 |
| 24/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 21/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 25% | -0.68 |
| 03/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |
| 16/09/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |