Fourdatesforhoco
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 7 · OR 85
Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 2.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-03-31 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-03-13 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-02-19 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2026-02-04 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 20/11/2025 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 75% | -0.21 |
| 16/12/2025 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |
| 04/02/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 43% | -0.47 |
| 19/02/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 13/03/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 31/03/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 12/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 24/08/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |