Hidden Ransom
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 1 · OR 73
Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-09 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-28 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +8.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 20/08/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 10/10/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 28/10/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 09/06/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 27/07/2026 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 17/09/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |