Kinderhook
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 6 · OR 80
Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-27 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/12/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 12/01/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 01/02/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 04/03/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 30/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 60% | -0.33 |
| 27/04/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 24/06/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 17/09/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 29% | -0.35 |