2
Knock Wood
7yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 2 · OR 81
Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼3
Strength95%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-08-27 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-08-12 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 59/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength80%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/02/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 10/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 86% | -0.10 |
| 29/04/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 16/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 15/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 12/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 27/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 21/09/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |