4
Prosecutor
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 4 · OR 83
Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength44%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Thistledown | ? | 10th | 6th | +3 |
| 2026-03-30 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-19 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 2-5 · tight 68/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength56%
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 09/09/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 30/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 13/11/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 19/12/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 01/02/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 04/03/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 30/03/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 02/05/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 10% | -0.06 |