Reckless L J
10yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 5 · OR 82
Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
83%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 2.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-05-13 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-11-13 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |
| 03/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 29/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 13/11/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 24/12/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 44% | -0.32 |
| 13/05/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 16/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 29/07/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 24/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |