4
Dark N Dirty
4yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 4 · OR 44
Thistledown · Race 3 - Allowance · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-10-08 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 5-10 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength13%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 21/06/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 18/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 67% | -0.29 |
| 08/10/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 07/05/2026 | 7th | 13/8 | 91% | 14% | -0.77 |
| 26/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 88% | +0.05 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 02/07/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 05/08/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |