10
Delta Marie
3yo Filly · 8-5 · Draw 10 · OR 28
Thistledown · Race 3 - Allowance · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
29%
Place Prob
23%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 35/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▲
Strength53%
Delivery trend +18.0% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 23/07/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 13/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |