6
First Kiss Ever
3yo Filly · 8-3 · Draw 6 · OR 55
Thistledown · Race 3 - Allowance · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-04 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 10-10 · tight 71/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -59.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/02/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 26/02/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |