5
Gypsy Kat
4yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 5 · OR 31
Thistledown · Race 3 - Allowance · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 46/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength59%
Delivery trend +11.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 15/06/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 02/07/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 23/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 13/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |