8
Lizzy's Dream
4yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 8 · OR 51
Thistledown · Race 3 - Allowance · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-30 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 57/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength64%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 21/06/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |
| 08/03/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 30/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 20/04/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 11/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 88% | +0.35 |
| 28/05/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 43% | -0.45 |
| 15/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 01/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |