7
Rivers Angel
3yo Filly · 8-3 · Draw 7 · OR 51
Thistledown · Race 3 - Allowance · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-14 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-02 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-07-17 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 53/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength69%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 02/09/2025 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 67% | -0.29 |
| 14/10/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 05/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 15/09/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 44% | -0.41 |