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Stacy Ellen

3yo Filly · 8-3 · Draw 1 · OR 52

Thistledown · Race 3 - Allowance · 6f

#10

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Mahoning Valley 05/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 30 · 6f 122 · beat its mark05/01/2026 · OR 30 par5/01C6OR 30C6 @ Mahoning Valley 04/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 40 · 6f Slo 122 · beat its mark04/02/2026 · OR 40 parC6 @ Mahoning Valley 19/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 43 · 6f Slo 122 · beat its mark19/02/2026 · OR 43 par19/02C6OR 43C6 @ Mahoning Valley 30/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 49 · 6f 118 · beat its mark30/03/2026 · OR 49 parC5 @ Thistledown 11/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 50 · 5f110y 117 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 50 par11/05C5OR 50C5 @ Thistledown 28/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 51 · 6f 117 · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 51 parC5 @ Thistledown 05/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 52 · 5f110y Fas 115 · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 52 par5/08C5OR 52C5 @ Thistledown 26/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 51 · 6f Fas 115 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 51 parC5 @ Thistledown 15/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 51 · 1m Fas 115 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 51 par15/09C5OR 51projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Thistledown?2nd2nd0
2026-08-26Thistledown?4th4th0
2026-08-05Thistledown?4th4th0
2026-05-28Thistledown?6th6th0
2026-05-11Thistledown?4th4th0
2026-03-30Mahoning Valley?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0130/035/0815/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 64/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▲
Strength79%

Delivery trend +2.7% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/01/20262nd9/488%86%-0.02
04/02/20262nd8/1196%80%-0.16
19/02/20262nd9/488%89%+0.01
30/03/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05
11/05/20264th7/163%63%-0.01
28/05/20266th6/168%29%-0.40
05/08/20264th5/174%40%-0.34
26/08/20264th16/116%50%+0.34
15/09/20262nd15/261%89%+0.28