3
Truest Air
3yo Filly · 8-3 · Draw 3 · OR 33
Thistledown · Race 3 - Allowance · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲3
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: -2.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-09-01 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-08-11 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 11th | −3 |
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-02 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 3-10 · tight 50/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength29%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/03/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 20/04/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |
| 04/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 02/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 02/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 13/07/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 11/08/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 01/09/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 22/09/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |