1
Bukele
3yo Gelding · 8-5 · Draw 1 · OR 66
Thistledown · Race 5 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 55/100
▲ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength86%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 36% | -0.16 |
| 06/11/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 29/04/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 17% | -0.69 |
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 13/08/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 01/09/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 15/09/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |