2
Estoico
3yo Gelding · 8-3 · Draw 2 · OR 68
Thistledown · Race 5 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-17 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 5-8 · tight 71/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength10%
Delivery trend -6.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 07/11/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |
| 17/12/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 28/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |
| 15/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 12/08/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |
| 15/09/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |