7
Killa Creed
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 7 · OR 62
Thistledown · Race 5 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-09-03 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 11th | 12th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +10.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/2026 | 11th | 9/2 | 76% | 9% | -0.67 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 82% | +0.56 |
| 13/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 03/09/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 21/09/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |