4
Moonlighter
3yo Gelding · 8-5 · Draw 4 · OR 70
Thistledown · Race 5 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 1.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-09-24 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 3-6 · tight 70/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength49%
Delivery trend -5.8% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 26/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |
| 24/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 88% | -0.03 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 91% | +0.01 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 91% | -0.04 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/6 | 96% | 83% | -0.13 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |