8
Almost Drilled
3yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 8 · OR 27
Thistledown · Race 6 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength53%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 7.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 63/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +31.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 13/08/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/08/2026 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 14/09/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |