Evan Come Home
4yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 6 · OR 26
Thistledown · Race 6 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-12-08 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2025-11-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-09-18 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +16.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 25/11/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 08/12/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/06/2026 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 13/07/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 17/08/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |