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4

Oak Mirna

3yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 4 · OR 60

Thistledown · Race 6 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Mahoning Valley 12/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 1m Gd 118 · HIGHER CLASS12/03C6C6 @ Mahoning Valley 30/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 6f 118 · HIGHER CLASSC9 @ Thistledown 04/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 5f110y Fas 1194/05C9C9 @ Thistledown 02/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 5f110y Fas 119C6 @ Thistledown 02/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 22 · 5f110y Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 22 par2/07C6OR 22C9 @ Thistledown 13/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 21 · 6f 119 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 21 parC9 @ Thistledown 03/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 27 · 5f110y 119 · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 27 par3/08C9OR 27C9 @ Thistledown 24/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 30 · 6f 119 · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 30 parC9 @ Thistledown 14/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 53 · 5f110y 119 · beat its mark14/09/2026 · OR 53 par14/09C9OR 53projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Thistledown?4th4th0
2026-08-24Thistledown?3rd3rd0
2026-08-03Thistledown?5th5th0
2026-07-13Thistledown?6th6th0
2026-07-02Thistledown?6th3rd+3
2026-06-02Thistledown?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/032/063/0814/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 57/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength69%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/03/202610th16/116%0%-0.16
30/03/20268th25/10%13%+0.13
04/05/20263rd25/10%67%+0.67
02/06/20263rd9/153%60%+0.07
02/07/20266th16/116%17%+0.01
13/07/20266th16/116%17%+0.01
03/08/20265th10/147%20%-0.27
24/08/20263rd14/126%75%+0.49
14/09/20264th15/261%67%+0.06