4
Gatha's Song
5yo Mare · 8-7 · Draw 4 · OR 68
Thistledown · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 2-6 · tight 52/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength23%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 11/08/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 03/09/2025 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 20% | -0.69 |
| 13/05/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 01/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 08/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 11/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 27/08/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |