2
Gray Perfection
3yo Filly · 8-3 · Draw 2 · OR 76
Thistledown · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength91%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 25/10/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 10/11/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 29/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 18/05/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 22/06/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 08/07/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 33% | -0.57 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 27/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |