1
Tipsy Tulip
3yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 1 · OR 66
Thistledown · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 1.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 3-5 · tight 67/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength38%
Delivery trend -14.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 05/08/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 15/09/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 24/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 50% | -0.42 |