IvyArcIvyArc
8

Bay Ja Blue

4yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 8 · OR 33

Thistledown · Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y

#5

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength16%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Thistledown 13/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 5f110y 12313/08C6C6 @ Thistledown 27/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 32 · 5f110y Fas 123 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 32 par27/08C6OR 32C6 @ Thistledown 16/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 32 · 6f Fas 123 · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 32 par16/09C6OR 32projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Thistledown?4th4th0
2026-08-27Thistledown?6th6th0
2026-08-13Thistledown?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0827/0816/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 8-10 · tight 69/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -30.4% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/08/20263rd12/137%71%+0.35
27/08/20266th9/153%38%-0.15
16/09/20264th9/276%50%-0.26