1
Cleatus
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 1 · OR 27
Thistledown · Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲2
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-09-07 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-08-25 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 3-8 · tight 61/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▲
Strength50%
Delivery trend +3.2% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 20/06/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 15/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 25/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 07/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 16/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |