4
Lowells Legacy
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 4 · OR 47
Thistledown · Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
74%
Place Prob
47%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 2-8 · tight 57/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength58%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/03/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 02/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 78% | -0.13 |
| 28/04/2026 | 5th | 5/6 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 63% | -0.23 |
| 07/07/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 56% | -0.30 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 27/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 60% | -0.32 |
| 16/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |