9
Spring River
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 9 · OR 32
Thistledown · Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Thistledown | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength97%
Delivery trend +10.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 07/07/2026 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 23/07/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/08/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 27/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 16/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |