Ard As A Rock
2yo Colt · 9-3 · Draw 4 · OR 67
Wolverhampton · Download The Racecourse App Raceday Ready Nursery · 5f 21y
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Chepstow | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Beverley | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Goodwood | 2 | 9th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-07-09 | Newbury | 2 | 5th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -38.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 76% | +0.76 |
| 28/07/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 12/08/2026 | 4th | 8/11 | 96% | 67% | -0.30 |
| 29/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |