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2yo Filly · 9-5 · Draw 10 · OR 69

Wolverhampton · Download The Racecourse App Raceday Ready Nursery · 5f 21y

#1

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

42%

Place Prob

35%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained a first win at the fourth attempt when making all in 8-runner novice at Lingfield (5f, all-weather) in August but was below form making his nursery debut when seventh of 10 at Bath (5f, good to firm, 22/1) 23 days ago. Return to all-weather could be a positive, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength58%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.4
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Redcar 25/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 5f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS25/0545 @ Yarmouth 26/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR - · 6f3y GF 12826/0653 @ Lingfield 11/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR - · 5f6y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS11/0835 @ Lingfield 20/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 63 · 5f6y Std 128 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 63 par20/085OR 635 @ Bath 12/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 71 · 5f10y Goo 131 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 71 par12/095OR 71projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Bath57th7th0
2026-08-20Lingfield51st1st0
2026-08-11Lingfield32nd0th+2
2026-06-26Yarmouth513th13th0
2026-05-25Redcar44th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0526/0611/0820/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 76/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength96%

Delivery trend +9.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/05/20264th9/153%50%-0.03
26/06/202613th40/10%0%0.00
11/08/20262nd12/137%75%+0.38
20/08/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
12/09/20267th22/10%33%+0.33