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10

Defiant Dream

2yo Filly · 8-3 · Draw 5 · OR 53

Wolverhampton · Download The Racecourse App Raceday Ready Nursery · 5f 21y

#10

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Standout effort when a 50/1 runner-up in a Ffos Las (5f, soft) maiden in July but she shaped better than the distance beaten suggests when fourth of 8 in a heavy ground nursery at that C&D 8 days ago, denied a run from 1f out. Needs to prove she's as effective on all-weather.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Lingfield 04/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 6f1y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS4/0645 @ Ffos Las 17/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR - · 5f Sft 12517/0655 @ Chepstow 24/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 6f16y GF 12824/0756 @ Chepstow 09/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 59 · 5f16y GF 130 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 59 par9/086OR 596 @ Southwell 17/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 56 · 6f16y Std 126 · below its mark17/09/2026 · OR 56 par17/096OR 565 @ Ffos Las 27/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 53 · 5f Goo 114 · beat its mark27/09/2026 · OR 53 par27/095OR 53projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-27Ffos Las54th4th0
2026-09-17Southwell611th12th−1
2026-08-09Chepstow65th6th−1
2026-07-24Chepstow56th6th0
2026-06-17Ffos Las52nd2nd0
2026-06-04Lingfield49th8th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0617/0624/079/0817/0927/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 3-10 · tight 47/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength43%

Delivery trend +1.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/06/20269th80/10%11%+0.11
17/06/20262nd50/10%75%+0.75
24/07/20266th18/15%44%+0.39
09/08/20265th20/10%43%+0.43
17/09/202611th66/10%9%+0.09
27/09/20264th28/10%57%+0.57