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6

Apex Star

3yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 3 · OR 57

Wolverhampton · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap · 6f 20y

#3

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has found a run of consistency and looked unlucky (forced wider than the winner) when just failing to get off the mark over C&D last time. Well drawn and every chance he makes amends in a race that should be run to suit.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chelmsford City 23/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 6f Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS23/1056 @ Wolverhampton 09/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 59 · 7f36y Std 129 · beat its mark09/04/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Wolverhampton 05/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 59 · 7f36y Std 134 · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 59 par5/056OR 596 @ Salisbury 14/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 59 · 6f Goo 134 · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Bath 05/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 57 · 5f160y Gd 132 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 57 par5/066OR 576 @ Windsor 29/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 57 · 5f21y GF 129 · below its mark29/06/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Leicester 22/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 57 · 6f Goo 127 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 57 par22/076OR 576 @ Lingfield 20/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 56 · 6f1y Std 130 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Wolverhampton 15/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 55 · 6f20y Std 131 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 55 par15/096OR 55projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Wolverhampton62nd2nd0
2026-08-20Lingfield63rd3rd0
2026-07-22Leicester63rd3rd0
2026-06-29Windsor611th11th0
2026-06-05Bath62nd2nd0
2026-05-14Salisbury67th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/1014/0522/0715/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 55/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength67%

Delivery trend -3.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/10/20255th100/10%50%+0.50
09/04/20263rd11/142%50%+0.08
05/05/20263rd13/891%78%-0.14
14/05/20267th7/163%57%-0.06
05/06/20262nd9/153%90%+0.37
29/06/202611th11/271%17%-0.54
22/07/20263rd9/276%71%-0.05
20/08/20263rd7/163%80%+0.17
15/09/20262nd9/488%91%+0.03