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5

Geemann

3yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 10 · OR 57

Wolverhampton · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap · 6f 20y

#7

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Got off the mark at the tenth time of asking in fairly straightforward fashion at Bath (6f) last month. Again shaped as if ready for 7f when beaten 5½ lengths over the same C&D subsequently. Work to do off only 1 lb lower on all-weather bow.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength87%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Bath 03/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 5f160y Sft 133 · HIGHER CLASS3/0956 @ Bath 30/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 63 · 5f160y Goo 133 · below its mark30/09/2025 · OR 63 par6 @ Bath 05/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 60 · 5f160y Gd 135 · below its mark05/06/2026 · OR 60 par5/066OR 606 @ Bath 01/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 57 · 5f160y Fm 132 · below its mark01/07/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Chepstow 09/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 54 · 6f16y GF 134 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 54 par9/086OR 546 @ Windsor 17/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 54 · 6f12y GF 134 · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 54 par4 @ Chepstow 31/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 53 · 6f16y Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 53 par31/084OR 536 @ Bath 02/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 53 · 5f160y Goo 131 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 53 par2 @ Bath 13/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 17 · OR 58 · 5f160y GS 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 58 par13/092OR 58projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Bath28th3rd+4
2026-09-02Bath61st1st0
2026-08-31Chepstow44th2nd+2
2026-08-17Windsor63rd3rd0
2026-08-09Chepstow63rd3rd0
2026-07-01Bath65th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/091/0731/0813/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 27/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength43%

Delivery trend +0.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/09/20256th100/10%50%+0.50
30/09/202511th9/153%17%-0.36
05/06/202610th25/10%10%+0.10
01/07/20265th12/137%0%-0.37
09/08/20263rd9/153%71%+0.19
17/08/20263rd22/10%82%+0.82
31/08/20264th10/382%0%-0.82
02/09/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
13/09/20268th14/126%56%+0.30