4
My Mate Kev
4yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 2 · OR 56
Wolverhampton · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap · 6f 20y
#9
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength46%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Lingfield | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Yarmouth | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Lingfield | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Lingfield | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Windsor | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Yarmouth | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 9-12 · tight 78/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength1%
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09/2025 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 23/10/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 11% | -0.26 |
| 29/03/2026 | 12th | 8/1 | 58% | 31% | -0.27 |
| 21/04/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 07/05/2026 | 6th | 6/4 | 92% | 29% | -0.64 |
| 19/05/2026 | 7th | 6/4 | 92% | 33% | -0.59 |
| 18/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 30/08/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 10/09/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 14% | -0.67 |