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10

Ten Cuidado

3yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 9 · OR 49

Wolverhampton · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap · 6f 20y

#10

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Standout effort when fourth in 7f maiden here over the winter. Best handicap run when third in cheekpieces at Bath last month. Some mitigation for subsequent below-par run at the same track (5f) and cheekpieces on for only the second time here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 7.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 11/04/2025 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR - · 5f34y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS11/0445 @ Wolverhampton 03/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 7f36y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Wolverhampton 15/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 7f36y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS15/1255 @ Lingfield 31/12/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 66 · 7f1y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/12/2025 · OR 66 par6 @ Kempton 08/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 60 · 1m Sta 130 · below its mark08/07/2026 · OR 60 par8/076OR 606 @ Lingfield 18/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 56 · 1m1y Std 131 · beat its mark18/08/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Bath 02/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 52 · 5f160y Goo 130 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 52 par2/096OR 526 @ Bath 13/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 51 · 5f10y GS 130 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 51 par13/096OR 51projClass-projected finish: 10th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Bath611th11th0
2026-09-02Bath63rd3rd0
2026-08-18Lingfield66th6th0
2026-07-08Kempton612th12th0
2025-12-31Lingfield510th9th+1
2025-12-15Wolverhampton57th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0431/122/0913/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 3-11 · tight 47/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength32%

Delivery trend +3.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/04/202510th80/10%10%+0.10
03/11/20254th20/10%63%+0.63
15/12/20257th6/168%14%-0.54
31/12/202510th50/10%0%0.00
08/07/202612th125/10%8%+0.08
18/08/20266th80/10%17%+0.17
02/09/20263rd50/10%75%+0.75
13/09/202611th18/15%17%+0.11