IvyArcIvyArc
1

Canvas

4yo Gelding · 9-13 · Draw 8 · OR 75

Wolverhampton · attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 1f 104y

#7

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Posted fine efforts when runner-up in big fields at York (1m) and Doncaster (1¼m, good to firm) last month, the reapplication of cheekpieces seemingly key. Can go well again after 3 lb rise.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength60%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ York 07/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 80 · 7f192y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/09/2025 · OR 80 par7/094OR 802 @ York 10/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 82 · 1m2f56y Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/10/2025 · OR 82 par3 @ Doncaster 25/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 82 · 1m Hvy 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 82 par25/103OR 824 @ Newmarket 16/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 81 · 1m Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 81 par4 @ Carlisle 24/06/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 80 · 7f173y GF 137 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/06/2026 · OR 80 par24/064OR 804 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 78 · 7f192y Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 78 par5 @ Doncaster 15/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 75 · 1m2f43y GF 133 · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 75 par15/085OR 754 @ York 06/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 19 · OR 72 · 7f192y GS 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Doncaster 11/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 17 · OR 72 · 1m2f43y Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 72 par11/094OR 72projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Doncaster42nd1st+1
2026-09-06York42nd1st+1
2026-08-15Doncaster56th6th0
2026-07-25York49th8th+1
2026-06-24Carlisle414th13th+1
2026-05-16Newmarket44th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0916/0515/0811/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 47/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength87%

Delivery trend +0.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/09/20251st7/163%100%+0.37
10/10/20257th22/10%14%+0.14
25/10/202510th28/10%31%+0.31
16/05/20264th13/266%73%+0.07
24/06/202614th17/255%0%-0.55
25/07/20269th15/261%43%-0.18
15/08/20266th6/168%17%-0.52
06/09/20262nd20/10%94%+0.94
11/09/20262nd15/261%94%+0.33