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6

Criminal

4yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 9 · OR 69

Wolverhampton · attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 1f 104y

#8

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Still a maiden but he went close on all-weather at Lingfield (1¼m) in April and having had excuses on his penultimate outing, confirmed himself as still in form when second of 10 in handicap at Salisbury (1¼m, good, 5/1). Worth betting check on return from 113 days off having left Richard Hughes.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength49%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Epsom Downs 28/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 81 · 1m2f17y GS 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/09/2025 · OR 81 par28/093OR 814 @ Kempton 18/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 80 · 1m2f219y Sta 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/02/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Wolverhampton 20/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 78 · 1m1f104y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/03/2026 · OR 78 par20/034OR 784 @ Wolverhampton 30/03/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 76 · 1m1f104y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/03/2026 · OR 76 par4 @ Lingfield 14/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 72 · 1m1y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/04/2026 · OR 72 par14/044OR 725 @ Lingfield 28/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 69 · 1m2f Std 135 · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Bath 12/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 71 · 1m2f37y Fm 134 · below its mark12/05/2026 · OR 71 par12/055OR 715 @ Kempton 10/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 70 · 1m Sta 130 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Salisbury 14/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 70 · 1m1f201y Gd 130 · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 70 par14/065OR 70projClass-projected finish: 6th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-14Salisbury52nd2nd0
2026-06-10Kempton57th7th0
2026-05-12Bath54th4th0
2026-04-28Lingfield52nd2nd0
2026-04-14Lingfield48th7th+1
2026-03-30Wolverhampton411th10th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0930/0312/0514/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 2-11 · tight 39/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength43%

Delivery trend -0.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/09/20253rd5/174%78%+0.04
18/02/20267th11/271%25%-0.46
20/03/20269th11/142%27%-0.15
30/03/202611th14/126%9%-0.17
14/04/20268th9/153%30%-0.23
28/04/20262nd7/282%89%+0.07
12/05/20264th9/488%0%-0.88
10/06/20267th5/174%40%-0.34
14/06/20262nd5/174%89%+0.15