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8

Magician of Riga

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 11 · OR 73

Wolverhampton · attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 1f 104y

#2

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won back-to-back all-weather handicaps at up to 1½m in April. Advanced his form again when third of 10 here (9.5f) in June and wasn't beaten far at all when fifth of 7 in handicap (12/1) at Newbury (1¼m, firm) 88 days ago (gelded since). Has widest stall to overcome.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Sandown 04/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 7f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS4/0724 @ Sandown 30/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 7f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS2 @ York 21/08/2025 · Pos 20th of 21 · OR - · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS21/0825 @ Wolverhampton 03/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 67 · 1m142y Std 132 · beat its mark03/03/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Wolverhampton 16/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 66 · 1m4f51y Std 129 · beat its mark16/03/2026 · OR 66 par16/035OR 666 @ Wolverhampton 06/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 65 · 1m4f51y Std 135 · beat its mark06/04/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Southwell 29/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 70 · 1m3f23y Std 135 · beat its mark29/04/2026 · OR 70 par29/045OR 705 @ Wolverhampton 28/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 73 · 1m1f104y Std 135 · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 73 par5 @ Newbury 09/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 73 · 1m2f GF 134 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 73 par9/075OR 73projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-09Newbury55th5th0
2026-06-28Wolverhampton53rd3rd0
2026-04-29Southwell51st1st0
2026-04-06Wolverhampton61st2nd−1
2026-03-16Wolverhampton53rd3rd0
2026-03-03Wolverhampton55th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/073/0329/049/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 2-9 · tight 55/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength59%

Delivery trend +2.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/07/20255th20/10%0%0.00
30/07/20258th20/10%0%0.00
21/08/202520th125/10%5%+0.05
03/03/20265th13/891%20%-0.71
16/03/20263rd9/153%50%-0.03
06/04/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
29/04/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
28/06/20263rd9/153%78%+0.25
09/07/20265th12/137%33%-0.04