4
My Girl Grace
3yo Filly · 9-8 · Draw 5 · OR 74
Wolverhampton · attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 1f 104y
#10
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.9 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: BHA77
Recent avg: C8.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -3.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Curragh | BHA77 | 10th | 13th | −3 |
| 2026-08-03 | Naas | BHA80 | 7th | 11th | −3 |
| 2026-07-14 | Killarney | BHA83 | 7th | 11th | −3 |
| 2026-06-04 | Leopardstown | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 8-11 · tight 70/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -17.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 14/07/2026 | 7th | 2/1 | 89% | 25% | -0.64 |
| 03/08/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 22/08/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 10% | -0.43 |