11
The Dark Baron
4yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 7 · OR 66
Wolverhampton · attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 1f 104y
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-30 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Lingfield | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Bath | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-04 | Kempton | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Bath | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 55/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▲
Strength86%
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/01/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |
| 02/02/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 03/03/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 05/04/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 04/05/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 29% | -0.54 |
| 26/05/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 13/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 30/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 70% | -0.06 |
| 15/09/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |