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3

Dovecote

3yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 1 · OR 75

Wolverhampton · attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 1f 104y

#3

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair form when runner-up all 3 starts in maiden/novice company this year, albeit a bit below his previous levels when runner-up in a 4-runner novice at Chester (7f, soft) 24 days ago. Blinkers on first time. Makes handicap debut over significantly longer trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength55%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chelmsford City 26/11/2025 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR - · 7f Std 13126/1154 @ Lingfield 06/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 7f135y Sft 131 · HIGHER CLASS6/0644 @ Southwell 23/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR - · 7f14y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS23/0744 @ Chester 11/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 76 · 7f1y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 76 par11/094OR 76projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Chester42nd1st+1
2026-07-23Southwell42nd1st+1
2026-06-06Lingfield42nd1st+1
2025-11-26Chelmsford City513th13th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/116/0623/0711/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 45/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength88%

Delivery trend +7.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/11/202513th15/261%0%-0.61
06/06/20262nd9/276%91%+0.15
23/07/20262nd6/594%92%-0.02
11/09/20262nd8/1196%67%-0.30