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10

Sant Alessio

5yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 5 · OR 66

Wolverhampton · attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 1f 104y

#8

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual winner last season, including over 8.7f here. Not really seen to great effect in 4 starts so far this year, possibly needing the run after 11 weeks off at Bath (1m, good to soft) 22 days ago but is now 2 lb below last winning mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Windsor 21/07/2025 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 63 · 1m2f Sft 133 · below its mark21/07/2025 · OR 63 par21/076OR 636 @ Bath 16/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 62 · 1m Fm 140 · beat its mark16/08/2025 · OR 62 par5 @ Bath 30/09/2025 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 68 · 1m2f37y Goo 140 · below its mark30/09/2025 · OR 68 par30/095OR 685 @ Leicester 14/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 68 · 1m53y Goo 130 · beat its mark14/10/2025 · OR 68 par5 @ Wolverhampton 04/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 68 · 1m142y Std 134 · beat its mark04/11/2025 · OR 68 par4/115OR 685 @ Kempton 20/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 70 · 1m Sta 130 · below its mark20/05/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Salisbury 14/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 70 · 1m Gd 135 · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 70 par14/065OR 705 @ Bath 01/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 69 · 1m Fm 136 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Bath 13/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 68 · 1m GS 138 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 68 par13/095OR 68projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Bath58th8th0
2026-07-01Bath54th4th0
2026-06-14Salisbury57th7th0
2026-05-20Kempton510th10th0
2025-11-04Wolverhampton51st1st0
2025-10-14Leicester52nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0714/1014/0613/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 29/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength50%

Delivery trend +3.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/07/202513th10/147%0%-0.47
16/08/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
30/09/202512th11/142%8%-0.34
14/10/20252nd22/10%86%+0.86
04/11/20251st14/126%100%+0.74
20/05/202610th18/15%18%+0.13
14/06/20267th28/10%50%+0.50
01/07/20264th10/147%50%+0.03
13/09/20268th14/126%22%-0.04